汇率调整前后重庆市短期资本变化趋势研究

对短期资本的计算和管理必须改变对传统的短期资本的认识。文章从短期资本管制的现状和随时变向的特性,对短期资本的定义进行重新界定,在此基础上利用重庆市涉外收支表计算汇率调整前后重庆市短期资本的数量并做出比较,得出其趋势将呈“V”型判断;通过对汇率调整前后短期资本流动的方式和途径进行经济学分析,提出防范短期资本流入风险要在健全金融市场的同时,要使人民币汇率与资本项目开放的谨慎配合,并要建立相应的预警指标机制。

THE TREND OF CHANGE OF SHORT-TERM CAPITAL BEFORE AND AFTER THE EXCHANGE RATE ADJUSTMENT IN CHONGQING

We must change our understanding of the traditional short-term capital for its computation and management.According to the present situation in its management and its property of changeability with time,this paper redefines the short-term capital.Based on this understanding and utilizing related foreign revenue and expenditure table of Chongqing,the authors calculate and compare the quantity of short-term capital before and after the exchange rate adjustment and conclude that its tendency can be described by a V-shape.By an economic analysis of the way and route of the short-term capital circulation before and after the exchange rate adjustment,the paper puts forward policy options and recommendations for the prevention of the risk of short-term inflow of capital,emphasizing the necessity of perfecting the finance market,cautiously coordinating the Renminbi exchange rate and the capital project opening and,accordingly,establishing the warning index mechanism.