产业系统演化模型及实证研究

摘　　要:产业系统是由诸多相互作用的经济元组成的动态演化系统，其主体要素是各产业部门。产业系统的演化意味着系统内各产业部门之间比例关系的变化。由于产业系统的开放性、层次性和非线性，必须从动态意义上去理解产业系统的状态变量。新产业的产生以及由此引起的产业系统内产业分化与产业重组是产业系统结构演进的关键环节和主要内容，产业系统演化本质上是系统内产生结构的调整、重组和升级。利用产业演化模型相关指标对中国部分制造类产业1985-2004年的整体演化轨迹进行了测定。计算结果表明，在研究时限内除普通机械制造业和化学纤维制造业目前已经进入产业演化周期的衰退期以外，家具制造业、医药制造业和仪器仪表及文化设备制造业目前均处于成熟期，只有电子及通信设备制造业正处于成长期，发展态势良好。电子及通信设备制造业是产业系统演化的典型代表，其技术创新效率与工业经济增长呈现高度的正相关性。产业技术创新弹性能够反映出不同产业演化水平变化对工业经济增长产生的不同影响，可以为我们评价和发展产业系统演化提供决策参考。

The Evolution Model and Empirical Studies of Industrial System

Industrial system is the dynamic evolution system composed by many interactive economic elements and its main components are various industrial sectors. The evolution of industrial system means the change of proportion of industrial sectors. Because of the openness, administrative levels and nonlinearity of industrial system, we should grasp the state variable of industrial system from significance of dynamic. The crucial link and the main content of structure evolution of industrial system is the emergence of new industry and the industrial differentiation and recombination, the industrial systematic evolution essence is the adjustment, reorganization and upgrade of the industrial structure. The paper measures the evolution track of China's manufacturing industry from 1985 to 2004 by adopting the evolution model. The conclusion indicates that ordinary machinery manufacturing industry and chemical fiber manufacturing have entered the period of gradually declining while other manufacturing industry have entered the pullulating or mature period, such as electronic and telecommunications equipment and instruments, medical and pharmaceutical products, cultural and office machinery, furniture manufacturing and so on. Electronic and telecommunications equipment and instruments manufacturing industry is the typical representative of industrial systematic evolvement, its technical innovation efficiency presents notable positive correlation with industrial economic increase. The technology innovation elasticity can reflect the different influence that the change of different industry evolution brings on the development of economy. All these can offer the reference for evaluating and promoting industry evolution.