财政透明度、预算软约束与纵向财政不平衡——来自新《预算法》实施准自然实验的证据

将新《预算法》实施作为准自然实验，采用双重差分（DID）和空间双重差分（SDID）方法实证检验了财政透明度、预算软约束对纵向财政不平衡的直接和间接作用机制。结果发现：财政透明度对纵向财政不平衡影响的总效应、直接效应、间接效应均显著为负，且与直接效应相比，间接效应的动态影响更加持久。从空间特征来看，其他省份财政透明度对本省份纵向财政不平衡和预算软约束的影响也显著为负，新《预算法》的实施效果在地理距离相近及经济距离相近的省份间都存在溢出。因此，应当多维度推进财政信息公开，不断提升财政透明度，理顺纵向财政关系，硬化地方政府预算约束，遏制地方政府投资冲动和过度竞争，打破地方政府对中央财政的救助幻觉，防止纵向财政不平衡程度进一步加深。

Fiscal Transparency,Soft Budget Constraints and Vertical Fiscal Imbalance: Evidence from a Quasi-Natural Experiment of the Implementation of the New Budget Law

We treated implementation of the New Budget Law as a quasi-natural experiment,used difference in difference (DID) and spatial difference in difference (SDID) methods for explaining the direct and indirect mechanism of fiscal transparency and soft budget constraints on vertical fiscal imbalance.The empirical study results showed that the total, direct, and indirect effects of fiscal transparency on vertical fiscal imbalance are all significantly negative.Compared with direct effect, the dynamic indirect effect is more permanent. From the perspective of spatial characteristics,the fiscal transparency of other provinces has a significant negative impact on the local vertical fiscal imbalance and soft budget constraints. The effect of the implementation of the New Budget Law overflows between provinces with similar geographic and economic distances.Therefore, in order to prevent the further deepening of the vertical fiscal imbalance, we should promote the disclosure of fiscal information in multiple dimensions, continuously improve fiscal transparency, straighten out vertical fiscal relations, harden local government budget constraints, curb local government investment impulse and excessive competition, and break the aiding illusion of local government to central government.