| 宏观经济走势预测理论与方法的回顾与展望 |
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| 引用本文： | 张世英,刘玉杰.宏观经济走势预测理论与方法的回顾与展望[J].天津大学学报(社会科学版),2005,7(4):275-279. |
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| 作者姓名： | 张世英 刘玉杰 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 天津大学管理学院,天津,300072
2. 华北水利水电学院水利工程系,郑州,450008 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金资助项目(70471050) |
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| 摘 要： | 分析了宏观经济走势预测理论与方法的研究进展和存在问题,重点是商业周期的预测模型,包括经济计量模型、时间序列模型、领先经济指标法、预期调查法等;系统阐述了预测模型精确度比较、合理性检验、显著性检验等过程,指出了该领域的研究方向。
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| 关 键 词： | 经济周期 预测理论与方法 经济结构变动 |
| 文章编号： | 1008-4339(2005)04-0275-05 |
| 修稿时间： | 2005年3月15日 |
Macroeconomic Forecasting Theories and Approaches:Review and Prospect |
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| ZHANG Shi-ying,LIU Yu-jie.Macroeconomic Forecasting Theories and Approaches:Review and Prospect[J].Journal of Tianjin University(Social Sciences),2005,7(4):275-279. |
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| Authors: | ZHANG Shi-ying LIU Yu-jie |
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| Abstract: | Firstly, the present situation and problems of macroeconomic forecasting theories and approaches is analyzed with emphasis on the forecasting of business cycle, including econometric model, time series model, leading economic indicator,expectation survey.Then the accuracy comparison, rationality test and significance test of the forecasting models are systematically presented.Finally, the research directions of this area are briefly outlined. |
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| Keywords: | business cycle forecasting theories and approaches economical structure break |
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