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Bootstrap procedures for variance breaks test in time series with a changing trend
Authors:Hao Jin  Jinsuo Zhang  Shougang Zhang
Affiliation:1. Department of Mathematics, Xi An University of Science and Technology, Xi An, China;2. Department of Mathematics, University of North Texas, Denton, USA;3. School of Economics and Management, Yan An University, Yan An, China;4. Department of Mathematics, University of North Texas, Denton, USA
Abstract:
In this article, we consider the problem of testing for variance breaks in time series in the presence of a changing trend. In performing the test, we employ the cumulative sum of squares (CUSSQ) test introduced by Inclán and Tiao (1994, J.?Amer.?Statist.?Assoc., 89, 913 ? 923). It is shown that CUSSQ test is not robust in the case of broken trend and its asymptotic distribution does not convergence to the sup of a standard Brownian bridge. As a remedy, a bootstrap approximation method is designed to alleviate the size distortions of test statistic while preserving its high power. Via a bootstrap functional central limit theorem, the consistency of these bootstrap procedures is established under general assumptions. Simulation results are provided for illustration and an empirical example of application to a set of high frequency real data is given.
Keywords:Bootstrap  Changing trends  CUSSQ test  Variance breaks.
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