农村人口老龄化与农业生产的效应机制

从劳动力供给效应、资本要素替代效应、土地规模转换效应三个方面构建农村人口老龄化影响农业生产的分析框架,基于中国家庭追踪调查数据,分析了农村人口老龄化对农业生产的影响及效应机制。研究发现,农村人口老龄化通过劳动力供给效应、资本要素替代效应抑制了农业生产,但通过土地规模转换效应促进了农业生产。上述三种效应叠加后,农村人口老龄化导致农业产出水平下降0.77%,劳动生产率下降1.19%,土地生产率下降0.69%。上述研究结论,不仅丰富了老龄化对农业生产领域的经验研究,也为应对老龄化对农业生产带来的不利影响提供了方向和思路。

Effect Mechanism of Rural Population Aging on Agricultural Production

This article analyzes the effect of the aging of rural population on agricultural production from the following three aspects: labor supply effect, capital element substitution effect, land scale conversion effect. Uses data from Chinese Family Panel Studies and examines the impacts of the aging of rural population on agricultural production and its path of action. The results show that the aging of rural population restrains agricultural production through labor supply effect and capital element substitution effect, but promotes agricultural production through land scale conversion effect. Superimposed the three effects, the aging of rural population leads to the decrease of agricultural output by 0.77%, labor productivity by 1.19% and land productivity by 0.69%. The study not only enriches the experience of aging on agricultural production, but also provides direction and ideas for dealing with the adverse effects of aging on agricultural production.