中国经济潜在增长率的再估算

鉴于中国劳动力无限供给和资本相对短缺的特殊状况,使用传统的方法来定义中国经济的潜在增长状态存在一定的困难.文章选择潜在资本存量指标作为判断中国经济是否处于潜在增长状态的指标.通过确定一个基期的实际资本存量并估算出历年的潜在资金使用量,就可以得到历年的潜在资本存量.通过潜在的资本存量可以得到潜在的就业量,然后通过生产函数法就可以估算出中国经济的潜在增长率.最后,根据实证分析的结果,对中国的经济发展提出了相应的政策建议.

Reestimation of Potential Growth Rate of China Economy

Because the special condition of infinite supply of labor and finite supply of capital in China,it appears to be difficult to define Chinese potential growth rate using the traditional methods.This paper selects potential capital quantity as the index of judging potential growth state.Through choosing an actual capital quantity of base year and estimating the potential quantity of money input of each year,the potential capital quantity of each year can be gotten.Through the potential capital quantity,the po...