新疆对外贸易和经济增长关系的实证研究

文章使用新疆1985--2006年的统计数据，利用协整理论和格兰杰（Gmnger）因果关系检验对新疆国内生产总值、出口和进口贸易之间的关系进行实证分析。研究结果表明，新疆的国内生产总值与新疆的出口、进口之间存在长期稳定的关系，新疆经济增长是拉动新疆出口和进口的Granger原因，新疆的进口是新疆经济增长的Granger原因，但新疆的出口却不是新疆经济增长的Granger成因。因此，应多方位加强出口产业与出口产品的工作，实现新疆对外贸易和新疆的经济增长良性互动发展。

Xinjiang Foreign Trade and Economic Growth

On the basis of the statistics between 1985 and 2006, this paper did an empirical analysis on the relationship between Xinjiang GDP, export and import trade by employing the co-integration theory and Granger＇s theory. The resuh shows that there is a long-term stable relationship between GDP, import and export of Xinjiang; Xinjiang＇s economic growth is the Granger＇s reason for pushing forward both the import and export of Xinjiang; and the import of Xinjiang is the Granger＇s reason for the economic growth of Xinjiang. However the export of Xinjiang is not the Granger＇s reason for the economic growth of Xinjiang. Thus, the export industry and export products should be strcngthened to realize a benign interacted development between Xinjiang foreign trade and economic growth of Xinjiang.