贵州省城市化发展与耕地资源的计量和协调性分析

城市化和保护耕地的矛盾已成为贵州经济发展中的突出问题。利用协整理论和协调度指标对贵州省1982～2008年的城市化水平与耕地面积的关系进行实证分析。结果表明,贵州耕地面积与城市化水平之间存在协整关系,且二者间呈负相关关系,随着城市化水平的提高,耕地面积减少,城市化水平提高是耕地面积变化的原因,但耕地面积变动不是城市化水平提高的原因。大部分年份的耕地资源与城市化水平协调度呈调和型,耕地资源保持在承载力阈值内,短期内可接受。

Analysis of Measurement and Coordination between Urbanization Development and Farmland Resources in Guizhou Province

The contradiction between urbanization and farmland protection has become a prominent issue in Guizhou's economic development.The paper empirical analyzed the relationship between urbanization and farmland from 1978 to 2008 by using co-integration theory and the coordination degree indicators.The result of this study shows there exists a co-integration relation between urbanization level and farmland in Guizhou Province,which is reverse correlation.The farmland descends with urbanization level rising.The urbanization development is a unilateral Granger cause of farmland change.The coordination degree of urbanization level and farmland area assumes the type of concessions in most ages.Farmland resources are kept within bearing the weight of force threshold value,and accepted in a short time.