从“凯恩斯效应”到“阿米曲线”——政府规模与经济增长关系的非线性转向

政府规模与经济增长之间的关系问题是宏观经济研究中的核心问题之一.关于两者关系的传统研究往往以线性假定为基础,所以实证结果出现了巨大的差异.这种现象促使研究者从非线性角度重新审视政府规模与经济增长之间的关系.“巴罗法则”在内生增长框架内为政府规模与经济增长关系研究提供了一个标准的分析框架,揭示了两者之间的倒“U”关系.而“Armey曲线”不仅非常直观地表达了政府规模与经济增长之间的非线性关系,同时还指出这种非对称关系的非对称性质,具有很强的总结性和政策指导意义.

From“Keynes Effect”to“Armey Curve”:Nonlinear Turning of Government Size on Economic Growth

The relationship betw een economic grow th and government size is one of key issues in microeconomics.T he traditional study w as based on linear impact,so empirical results w ere so different.T his made researchers re-survey the relationship betw een economic grow th and government size w ith a nonlinear perspective.Barro R ule built a framew ork of optimal government size theory based on Endogenous Grow th T heory,and revealed the inverted U relationship betw een them.Armey curve not only expressed the nonlinear relationship betw een economic grow th and government size vividly,but also told us asymmetry characteristic of the nonlinear relationship.Armey curve is so summarized meaningfully on policy.