中国服务业能源消费与碳排放的关联分析

在分析1991—2011年间中国服务业能耗与碳排放的结构特征和总体趋势的基础上,运用OECD脱钩指标法和Tapio脱钩指标法,阐述了服务业GDP、能耗与碳排放之间的互动关系和关联效应。结果表明:服务业GDP、能耗和碳排放量整体上呈逐年增长之势;能耗强度与碳排放强度的变化具有很强的一致性和同步性,都呈下降之势;煤炭类消费的比重大致呈递减之势,而天然气、热力和电力消费的数量和比重却呈逐年增长趋势;煤炭、石油等传统高碳能源比重均占80%以上;历年OECD脱钩因子均呈现出绝对脱钩的状态,并表现为波动式上升之势;历年Tapio脱钩弹性指数整体上也均呈波动式上升之势。基于以上结论,提出了服务业节能减碳的政策建议。

Relevance Analysis of Energy Consumption

On the basis of structural characteristics and general tendency analysis on energy consumption and car-bon emission about Chinese service industry during 1991-2011,the methods of OECD and Tapio decoupling indi-cator were applied,the interactive relations and associated effects were described among GDP,energy consumption and carbon emission in service industry.Results indicates as follows：as a whole,GDP,energy consumption and carbon emission were yearly growth of potential;The change of energy intensity and carbon intensity about service industry had strong consistency and synchronization,and they were declined of potential;The consumption propor-tion of coal was roughly decreasing of potential,but the consumption proportion and total amount of natural gas, thermal and power were yearly growth trend;traditional high carbon energy proportions,such as coal and oil were accounted for 80% above;OECD decoupling factor were rendering out absolute decoupling state,and performed for fluctuations type rose of potential every year;Tapio decoupling elasticity indicators showed volatility on the overall rising trend.Based on the above conclusions,some policy recommendations of energy saving and carbon reduction about service industry were put forward.