中国汇率制度改革:动力、约束与路径选择

中国不具备选择钉住美元的固定汇率制度的条件,继续实行该制度将付出巨大的成本与风险,金融开放的中国应该选择真正的管理浮动汇率制度。但是,由固定到管理浮动的汇率制度改革必须具备以下条件:(1)富有流动性和效率的外汇市场;(2)完善的货币政策框架;(3)通胀目标制(Inflation Targeting)名义锚作用的发挥;(4)微观经济主体较强的汇率风险管理能力。上述条件中国尚不能满足,并由此构成了由固定钉住美元到管理浮动的人民币汇率制度改革的硬性约束。所以,中国只能按照一定的路径选择,积极创造条件推行渐进的人民币汇率制度改革。

Views on reforms to China's exchange rate arrangements: force, restraint and route selection

The conditions don' t exit for China to fix its exchange rate arrangements in light of US dollars. Huge cost will have to be paid and risk will emerge if the current practice continues. Instead, as an open economy, China should move towards managed floating exchange rate arrangement . For a successful transition from a fixed exchange rate system to a managed floating system, the following four conditions are to satisfied: (1) a flexible and efficient foreign exchange market; (2) a well-structured monetary policy framework; (3) nominal anchor role of inflation targeting; (4) the ability to manage exchange rate risk. As far as China is concerned, the conditions are still not satisfied, which in turn constitutes a restraint to the reform to its exchange rate arrangements. Therefore, China ' s exchange rate arrangement reform should be geared to a rational route selection