Public Opinion du Jour: An Examination of the Spiral of Silence

This study investigates the spiral of silence theory using perceivedvote outcomes as well as actual vote behaviors. The first majorhypothesis—that those who see their position as gainingsupport will be more likely to discuss while those who see theirposition as losing support will be less likely to discuss—wassupported by the data. Some support was also found for the hypothesisthat individuals perceiving support for a certain candidatewould be more likely to express a preference for the candidate.Results also seemed to justify the Noelle-Neumann distinctionbetween the resistant hardcore and other types of citizens.The relative independence of perception of opinion judgmentsfrom own preferences also was investigated and support was foundfor this difference.