失业呆滞、失业持续性与货币政策——一个包含失业呆滞的NK-DSGE模型分析

将内部人协议引起的失业呆滞引入NK-DSGE模型,分析失业呆滞对我国失业及其持续性的动态影响,研究发现,失业呆滞不仅影响了外生冲击下失业的动态反应及其持续性,并且对宏观经济及劳动力市场造成了永久性伤害.进一步分析失业呆滞显著存在背景下不同货币政策机制的效应,结果显示:失业呆滞几乎不能影响最优货币政策机制对失业的稳定作用;而在Evans规则下,失业呆滞显著影响了货币政策对外生冲击下失业动态的影响,失业问题在短期中难以有效缓解,但相比基准货币政策机制,Evans规则仍实现了社会福利的相对改进.因此,通过劳动力市场结构性改革,打破行政性用人体制,促进劳动力的自由流动,进而消除失业呆滞的制度性诱因,将有利于发挥Evans规则对劳动力市场的稳定作用.

Hysteresis and Persistence of Unemployment and Monetary Policy

By introducing the insider agreement,this paper considers a NK-DSGE model with hysteresis in unemployment,and analyzes the dynamic effect of unemployment hysteresis on China's unemployment and its persistence.The research shows that the hysteresis not only alters the response of unemployment under exogenous shocks and unemployment persistence but also changes the steady state of unemployment.Further,we analyze the impact of different monetary policy mechanisms under the background of obvious existence of unemployment hysteresis and the results show that the hysteresis can almost not affect the stabilizing role of optimal monetary policy in the unemployment,however,under Evans rule,the hysteresis significantly affects the dynamic effect of the unemployment under exogenous shocks of monetary policy,the unemployment can not ease in short term but Evans rule still improve social welfare by comparing with standard monetary policy mechanism.Thus,Evans rule is helpful to the stability role of labor market by structural reform of labor market,by changing the administrative employment institution,by promoting the free mobility of labor and further by clearing institutional inducement of unemployment hysteresis.