需求侧、供给侧视角下中国经济增长动力转换实证研究

为找出中国经济持续高速增长背后的驱动因素,了解增长动力的演变规律,本文基于投入产出模型,从最终需求的角度解析消费、投资和出口对经济拉动作用的动态变化;同时运用DEA方法,从要素供给角度分析中国各地区劳动、资本和TFP对经济增长的贡献,结合需求侧和供给侧的双重角度,探讨经济增长的动力转换特征和问题.结果表明,中国经济增长的需求动力来源由前期的消费转变为出口后,近年来又转变为投资,而资本要素一直是中国各省市增长的主要要素驱动力.中国的经济增长正处在投资主导阶段,经济快速增长的背后伴随着效率下降等问题.

Empirical Research on China's Economic Growth MomentumConversion in Demand-side and Supply-side Perspective

In order to find out the driving factors behind the sustained economic growth of China, to understand the evolving law of momentum, this paper used input-output model, explained the dynamic changes of contributions of consumption, investment and export to economy in perspectives of final demand.Then, based on DEA method and Solow Growth Model, we measured labor, capital and TFP's contribution to China's regional economic growth from factor supply aspect, and combined the two perspectives of demand side and supply side to discuss the power conversion characteristics and problems in the economic growth.Results show that China's economic growth momentum came from final demand transformed from consumption to export before, and transformed to investment in recent years.In supply side, capital has been the main sources of economic growth of Chinese provinces and municipalities.China's economic growth is in the investment-driving stage, the rapid economic growth has been accompanied by efficiency decreasing.