2012年后CDM走势及其对中国的影响

尽管中国已经成为CDM项目最大的受益国，但是国际社会对CDM的运行及作用存在诸多质疑。与此同时，随着第一个京都承诺期期满的临近，国际社会展开了2012年后气候协议的协商和谈判，其中也针对CDM进行了若干调整。根据现有的发展状况，CDM可能具有在2012年后加以延续、重新定位以及进一步完善的发展趋势。该发展趋势一方面会完善其在中国的发展；另一方面也会使CDM市场竞争更加激烈。同时，从长远来看，CDM对促进中国可持续发展具有局限性。

Tendencies of the Clean Development Mechanism beyond 2012 and Their Impact on China

In spite of the fact that China has become the largest beneficiary of the CDM, there are questions about the operation of the CDM and its contribution to addressing global warming. Meanwhile, as the expiration of the first Kyoto commitment period is looming,international negotiations and conferences on the post-2012 framework are under way,under which reformation of the CDM is also proposed. Based on the current situation and these proposals, there are tendencies that the CDM would be continued, re-oriented and improved beyond 2012, which,on the one hand,can promote the implementation of CDM projects in China and on the other hand, will bring more intense competition of the carbon trading. In addition,in the long run, the CDM has its limits in promoting sustainable development in China.