我国人口迁移过程中的空间效应实证研究

在引力方程的框架下，基于O?D模型，针对现有研究忽视空间效应的现状，利用空间计量方法对我国人口迁移中的空间效应进行了实证研究。分析结果表明，引入空间效应后，不仅能够较好地解释我国人口在省际间的迁移，而且可以更深入地了解我国现阶段各省区间人口迁移的机制和方式。这不但是对人口迁移理论的有益扩展，对我国东西部地区人口合理流动，协调区域经济发展更是具有深刻的意义。

An Empirical Study on the Spatial Effects in the Migration

Prior studies on the population migration usually pay little attention to the spatial effects. To fix it, in the framework of the gravity equation and based on the O?D model, this paper uses spatial econometric method to estimate the spatial effects on migration. The analysis results show that, the introduction of spatial effects not only explain the population migration among provinces, but also reveal the mechanism and method of the migration better. The above observations improve the migration theory, and more importantly, they shed lights on the rational flow of the population between the West and the East region, especially the policy coordinating development of regional economy.