中国老年人储蓄对家庭消费的影响 ——基于CHARLS面板数据的分析

在我国快速老龄化和居民储蓄率居高不下的背景下,结合老年人储蓄偏好和消费特点,构建家庭消费计量分析模型,文章利用CHARLS2011、2013、2015年微观跟踪调查数据,采用工具变量—随机效应模型划分年龄层次和消费类别逐级估计,重点考察老年人储蓄对其家庭消费的影响。研究表明,老年人储蓄水平越高,对家庭消费的促进能力就越强;分城乡来看,农村老年人储蓄对家庭消费的贡献更大;按年龄组别来看,中、低龄老年人储蓄对家庭消费的影响显著,高龄老年人储蓄对家庭消费的影响不显著;按消费类别看,老年人储蓄偏重于家庭基本生活、教育文化、健康等刚性消费支出,城镇和农村老年人储蓄对不同消费类别影响的差异主要表现在日常支出、医疗保健和耐用消费品等方面。此外,研究还发现,老年人拥有房产对家庭消费具有非常明显的提振作用,家庭收入和老年人借贷对家庭消费的贡献显著。

Research on the Impact of the Elderly Savings on Household Consumption in China:Empirical Analysis Based on the Panel Data of CHARLS

Under the background of the rapid pace of aging and resideat’s high savings rate,combining with the elderly savings preference and consumption characteristics,a household consumption model was built.Using micro tracking survey data of CHARLS and tool variable-Random Effect Model,this article focus on discussing the influence of the elderly savings on family consumption.The overall regression result shows that the higher the savings owned by the elderly,the stronger to boost household consumption.In terms of urban and rural areas,the savings of rural elderly contribute more to household consumption.According to different age groups,the savings of the middle and lower aged have a significant impact on household consumption while the effect of savings on household consumption is not significant.According to the consumption categories,the elderly savings are mainly focused on the basic living of families,education culture,health and other rigid consumption expenditures.The different impact of urban and rural elderly population savings on various consumption categories is mainly in daily expenditures,medical care and consumer durables consumer goods.In addition,the paper also reveals that the ownership of real estate by elderly has an obvious boost to the household consumption,and the contribution of family wages and the elderly lends to the household consumption is significant.