Model Uncertainty and Risk Estimation for Experimental Studies of Quantal Responses |
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Authors: | A John Bailer Robert B Noble Matthew W Wheeler |
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Institution: | Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Miami University, Oxford, OH 45056, USA. bailerj@muohio.edu |
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Abstract: | Experimental animal studies often serve as the basis for predicting risk of adverse responses in humans exposed to occupational hazards. A statistical model is applied to exposure-response data and this fitted model may be used to obtain estimates of the exposure associated with a specified level of adverse response. Unfortunately, a number of different statistical models are candidates for fitting the data and may result in wide ranging estimates of risk. Bayesian model averaging (BMA) offers a strategy for addressing uncertainty in the selection of statistical models when generating risk estimates. This strategy is illustrated with two examples: applying the multistage model to cancer responses and a second example where different quantal models are fit to kidney lesion data. BMA provides excess risk estimates or benchmark dose estimates that reflects model uncertainty. |
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Keywords: | Bayesian model averaging benchmark doses quantal multistage models unit cancer risk |
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