研发投入对企业绩效的影响研究——基于企业金融化水平门限回归

本文选取1435家A股上市公司2011—2018年度的面板数据,以企业金融化水平作为门限变量,研究企业研发投入对企业绩效的非线性影响关系。研究结果表明:(1)企业金融化行为给研发投入对企业绩效的促进作用带来严重的时滞效应,研发投入对当年企业绩效不存在促进作用;(2)研发投入对未来一年企业绩效有双门限效应,二者呈倒N型关系,在第二区间内研发投入促进未来一年企业绩效;研发投入对未来二年企业绩效有单门限效应,在第一区间内研发投入促进未来二年企业绩效;(3)在适度的企业金融化水平区间内,研发投入才会促进未来企业绩效。本文指出上市公司金融化水平最优区间占比分布具有区域、行业和企业性质异质性,并进一步基于实证研究结果提出了相应的政策建议,有利于企业合理管理研发投入和防止企业脱实向虚。

Research on the impact of R&D investment on firm performance:Based on threshold regression of firm financialization level

The relationship between R&D investment and firm performance has long been debated.Early studies suggest that R&D investment and firm performance are not related,and some studies point out that there is a linear correlation between them.Some scholars find a complex nonlinear relationship between R&D investment and firm performance.The input and income of R&D investment are characterized by distinct stages.To contribute to firm performance,R&D investment intensity must exceed a certain threshold so that a firm′s core technology is not easily imitated by other firms.Some recent studies of the relationship between R&D investment and firm performance consider the role of firm financialization(hereinafter,financialization).The main conclusions of the literature on financialization are as follows.Financialization means that firms invest or rely more on the financial market.Moreover,financialization changes the source of firm profits.However,few studies have examined the relationship between financialization(such as financing through the capital market),R&D investment,and firm performance.In essence,financialization of firms is an investment behavior of financial asset allocation.The literature shows that financialization influences innovation and firm performance both positively and negatively;accordingly,financialization may affect the relationship between innovation and firm performance.Moreover,there may be an inflection point of this effect.This leads to the research question:is there a threshold effect of financialization in the relationship between R&D investment and firm performance,such that under different levels of financialization,R&D investment affects firm performance differently?On one hand,financialization may occupy R&D investment capital in the current year and even affect the sustainability of R&D investment,further affecting firm performance;on the other hand,R&D activities are subject to the capital status of firms,whereas some financialization behaviors may involve external financing,such as loans,and provide financial support for R&D investment,thus affecting firm performance.Some studies find that innovation may be an important channel through which financialization affects primary business performance,and that there is an inflection point in the effect of financialization on innovation.Before reaching the inflection point,financialization forces out innovation,but after exceeding the inflection point,financialization promotes innovation.This indicates that financialization is an important factor in the relationship between R&D investment and firm performance,and the influence of financialization may have an interval effect.Accordingly,we infer that there may be a threshold effect of financialization in the relationship between R&D investment and firm performance.Based on the relevant literature review,this paper proposes the following hypotheses.Hypothesis 1:When a firm′s financialization level is taken as the threshold variable,R&D investment intensity has a threshold effect on current firm performance.Hypothesis 2:When a firm′s financialization level is taken as the threshold variable,R&D investment intensity has a threshold effect on future firm performance.We use the threshold model proposed by Hansen for our model design.The study models take return on assets as the dependent variable,R&D investment intensity as the core explanatory variable,and firm financialization level as the threshold variable.It also includes a series of control variables including ownership concentration,debt to asset ratio,operation ability,growth ability,firm size,firm age,CEO duality,and CEO tenure.The empirical studies test whether there is a threshold effect of R&D investment intensity on current and future firm performance with financialization level as the threshold.This study reexamines the nonlinear relationship between R&D investment and firm performance,and considers the level of firm financialization as a threshold.The results lead to three main conclusions.First,financialization causes a serious time-lag in the positive effect of R&D investment on firm performance;that is,R&D investment has no positive effect on current firm performance.Second,R&D investment and second-year firm performance have an inverted N-type relationship,and in the second regime,R&D investment promotes second-year firm performance.Third,R&D investment promotes third-year firm performance in the first regime.This study proposes that in a moderate range of financialization,R&D investment promotes future firm performance.The conclusions should inform firms′decrision-makers,and help them to avoid blindly engaging in financial investment activities that waste and idle funds.This study also provides a theoretical basis for the government to guide and regulate the investment behavior of listed firms,which is conducive to preventing firms from disengaging from the real economy,creating asset bubbles,and avoiding industrial hollowness.