贸易自由化视角下新丝绸之路战略经济影响评估

新丝绸之路是中国当前实施的一项重大的对外战略，而贸易畅通是中国推进该战略的一项重要举措。中国已经宣布将积极与沿线国家和地区共同商建自由贸易区，激发区域合作潜力。 为探讨贸易自由化视角下新丝绸之路战略的经济影响，采用全球贸易分析模型进行定量分析，以新丝绸之路建设的核心区(中国和中亚五国)为分析对象，从实际GDP、居民福利、进出口贸易和产业结构等方面，对中国与中亚五国开展区域经济一体化合作的效果进行评估。 研究结果表明，①新丝绸之路推进会给沿线国家带来不同的经济增长效应和福利改善效果，是一个共同繁荣和发展的战略。受益于关税减免，中国和中亚五国总GDP增长0.011%，总的福利水平改善671.065百万美元。②新丝绸之路会显著提升沿线国家的经贸合作水平，改变参与国家的产业结构和贸易结构。通过推进区域经济一体化，中国向中亚五国出口增长31.402%，中亚五国向中国出口增长14.143%。③新丝绸之路战略的推进会带来复杂的行业分布效果，中国纺织业受益较大，但农业和电子设备制造业均会遭受一定的损失。与之不同，哈萨克斯坦钢铁金属业产出增幅最高，吉尔吉斯斯坦受益最大的是农业。 从贸易畅通视角推进新丝绸之路经济带建设符合互惠互利的基本原则，中国应该全面客观地了解新丝绸之路战略的影响，针对那些受损严重的行业可能需要出台一定的保护措施。

The Economic Evaluation of the New Silk Road Strategy from the Perspective of Trade Liberalization

The New Silk Road has become one of the most important foreign strategies of China, and unimpeded trade is regarded as an important measure to promote the strategy into practice. It has been announced that China would discuss with countries and regions along the road on opening free trade areas so as to unleash the potential for expanded cooperation. To explore the economic impacts of the New Silk Road, this paper adopts the Global Trade Analysis Model(GTAP) to conduct the study from the perspective of trade liberalization. More specially, the free trade agreement among the core countries such as China and the five Central Asian countries has been discussed, and the results have been elaborated in terms of the real GDP, resident welfare, import and export trade and industrial structure changes. The simulation will yield some interesting results. Firstly, the participating countries in the New Silk Road will experience some social welfare improvement and economic growth, thus it is a way for win-win cooperation that promotes common development and prosperity. The results show that with the elimination of trade barriers, the total real GDP of China and the five Central Asian countries will increase by 0.011%, while the total welfare will increase by 671.065 million USD. Secondly, the New Silk Road strategy could enhance the economic and trade ties among participating countries significantly, which will also affect their industrial structures and trade structures. The result show that the exports from China to the five Central Asian countries will increase by 31.402%, while the corresponding imports will increase by 14.143%. Finally, the development of the New Silk Road will result in complex industry distribution effects, and China will benefit most for textile and will suffer most for agricultural and electronic equipment. Differently, Kazakhstan will benefit most for iron and steel industry, while Kyrgyzstan will benefit most for agriculture. This paper provides a quantitative evaluation of the New Silk Road strategy of China. The results demonstrate the economic growth and social welfare improvements for the countries and regions along the road on opening free trade areas. The unimpeded trade measure proposed satisfies the principle of mutual benefit, thus it should be given priority consideration for the development of the New Silk Road in the future. The results in the paper are also valuable for Chinese policy makers, and China should give a full understanding of the New Silk Road strategy, and some protection measures may be needed to introduce for the industries which are suffered most.