经济政策不确定性与风险承担:基于风险投资的证据

将经济政策不确定性引入风险投资的决策模型，从理论上证明经济政策不确定性既直接降低风险承担，也负向影响风险投资退出绩效间接降低风险承担.利用1996年~2016年中国经济政策不确定性与风险投资的匹配数据，实证结果支持理论预期.研究发现，经济政策不确定性较高时，风险承担显著更低，表现为风险投资对早期阶段企业和高科技企业的投资比例下降.退出绩效在经济政策不确定性与风险承担之间具有中介作用.经济政策不确定性较高时，风险投资通过IPO或者并购成功退出的交易数目更少、退出期限更长、退出收益更低，因而降低风险承担研究表明，为引导风险投资支持早期高科技企业，除通过财政、税收等政策扶 持奖励风险投资外，政府有必要维持相关政策的稳定性和延续性.

Economic policy uncertainty and risk-taking: Evidence from venture capital

This paper models economic policy uncertainty into venture capitalists'' decision-making process, proving that economic policy uncertainty reduces venture capitalists'' risk-taking both directly and indirectly. Using the matched data of China''s economic policy uncertainty and venture capital investments over the period of 1996~2016, this paper empirically examines the impact of economic policy uncertainty on risk taking and provides suportive evidence for the hypotheses. It is found that economic policy uncertainty negatively impacts risk taking and reduces venture capital investments into early-stage and high-tech entrepreneurial firms. Further, the exit success performs a mediating effect between economic policy uncertainty and risk-taking. Specifically, as the economic policy uncertainty increases, the number of venture capitalists'' successful exits from entrepreneurial firms through IPO or M&A declines. Venture capitalists are less able to successfully exit, or they have to hold shares for a long time and receive low returns even though they managed to successfully exit from entrepreneurial firms with increasing economic uncertainty, so that they are less inclined to take risks. The results suggest that providing and maintaining stable economic policies are crucial to guide venture capital towards early-stage and technological firms.