随机需求下考虑零售商风险偏好的生鲜农产品最优订货策略

针对生鲜农产品销售期内存在的期初期末销售量大而期中销售量小的现象,将零售商单销售期划分为三阶段;考虑顾客到达服从强度随机的非齐次Poisson过程,单位顾客购买量受产品价格和新鲜度影响;引入风险偏爱系数表征零售商的风险偏爱程度,着重分析产品新鲜度衰变系数和零售商风险偏爱系数对订货决策的影响,给出不同风险偏爱系数零售商的最优订货策略.结论表明,考虑零售商风险偏好和新鲜度衰变速率影响的订货策略,更能体现生鲜农产品的特性.最后用数值算例描述了有关结论.

Optimal Ordering Policy for Fresh Agricultural Products with Stochastic Demand Considering Retailers' Risk Preference

According to the phenomenon that fresh agricultural products retailers always sell more products in the morning and the late afternoon while between them they sell less,a single sale period is divided into three parts.This paper considers customers arrive following the Nonhomogeneous Poisson Process with a random parameter,and each takes a quantity depending on the products’ freshness and price.It introduce the Risk Preference Coefficient to describe retailers’ risk preference degree,focus on how freshness decline coefficient and risk preference coefficient affect retailer’s ordering decision,and provide an optimal ordering policy for each of them.Conclusion shows an ordering policy considering retailer’s risk preference and deteriorating rate of product,is more efficient for agricultural products.Finally,the conclusion is drawn by a numerical example.