股利政策、盈余持续性与信号显示

本文基于盈余持续性的概念,实证检验了上市公司的股利类型、股利支付率与企业未来盈利能力的关系,并进一步考察了大股东派发现金股利对盈余持续性的影响.本文的研究发现,总体而言,我国上市公司中派发了现金股利的公司其盈余持续性要强于未派发股利的公司,而且在净利润和营业利润上也表现出更强的增长能力.但在派发现金股利的公司中.股利支付率的大小与盈余持续性强弱并不成简单的线性关系,股利支付率高的公司在盈余的整体及其组成部分上并未表现出更强的盈余持续性.最后,大股东对于现金股利的偏好并未显著影响到盈余的持续性.由此,本文认为,我国上市公司的现金股利政策能够成为以持续性衡量的盈余质量或未来盈利能力的附加信号.

Dividend Policy,Earnings Persistence and Signal Display

We examine the relationship between dividend type/ dividend payment ratio and earnings persistence,and further investi- gate the impact of the big shareholder's dividend policy on earnings persistence.It is concluded that the earnings persistence of those com- panies that paid cash dividend is stronger than those that didn't pay cash dividend in China.Moreover,the former also displays the stron- ger growth ability in the net income and operating income.But the relationship between dividend payment ratio and the earnings persis- tence is not a simple linear relation.The company with higher divi- dend payment ratio does not display stronger earnings persistence. Finally,the preference to cash dividend of the big shareholder(s) does not significantly affect the earnings persistence.From this,we believe that cash dividend will be able to become an additional signal when we use earnings persistence to measure earnings quality or the future earnings growth.