我国货币政策作用非对称性和波动性的实证检验

货币政策的非对称性主要是指货币政策在经济周期的不同阶段具有不同的作用效果. 文 章利用描述实际GDP 增长率波动成分的各种GARCH 模型检验发现,在我国经济运行当中,紧 缩性货币政策对于经济的减速作用大于扩张性货币政策对于经济的加速作用. 因此,应该在经 济收缩阶段实行稳健性货币政策来规避金融风险和防范通货膨胀,采用积极财政政策刺激投 资需求和消费需求,以保持经济的快速稳定增长.

Empirical study of asymmetry and volatility in effectiveness of monetary policy

Monetary policy has different impacts on economic activities in business cycle. This is noted by the asymmetry of monetary policy. By detrending the time series and using the GARCH model with asymmetry , we find out in China that tight monetary policy slow the economy in the boom more than easy monetary policy accelerates the economy in the recession. Therefore , in the recession period of business cycle , we should take the robust monetary policy to avoid the financial risk and prevent the inflation , take the active fiscal po