政府干预下突发事件舆情传播规律与控制决策

通过对突发事件背景下的舆情传播进行多案例研究,界定了群众类型和政府干预作用,并分析了各类群众间的状态转移关系.然后,通过借鉴SEIR传染病模型的构造思路,结合舆情传播的实际特点,建立了政府干预下的舆情传播控制系统,进而运用平均场方法给出了系统的微分方程组模型.进一步,通过研究模型的平衡点和稳定性,得到了政府所应选择的管控方向,并以2011年东日本大地震事件中的舆情传播为例进行了验证.最后,基于该案例,通过设计多个情景,考查了政府的不同应急决策关注点对群众行为的影响,给出了应急方案的制定策略.

Propagation law and coping strategies for public opinions in emergency with the consideration of the government intervention

Through studying multiple cases on public opinion propagation under the background of emergency,the classifications of masses and the intervention effects of the government are first defined,and the state-transition relationship between different types of the masses is also analyzed.Then,according to the practical characteristics of public opinion propagation,a control system of public opinion propagation with the consideration of the government's intervention is constructed by applying the SEIR epidemic model.Further,the mean field method is used to present a differential equations model for the above system,and the government's coping strategies are obtained through studying the equilibrium points and the stability of this model.Finally,the public opinion propagation of the Great East Japan Earthquake in 2011 is taken as a case,in which the influences of different focuses of government's emergency decision on the behaviors of the masses are tested through designing multiple scenarios,and some related strategies are proposed for making emergency schemes.