体验型产品消费行为的羊群效应及机理研究——基于电影行业消费行为的实证解释

互联网环境下消费者购买体验型产品时对网络信息的依赖性很大。因此，研究社交媒体影响下体验型产品的消费者决策选择行为具有现实意义。本文以电影行业的票房偏离及消费跟风现象为切入点，探究体验型产品的羊群效应并对其产生的内在机理进行解释。采集艺恩资讯的票房数据以及豆瓣的电影基本信息及影评等数据作为研究样本，从消费者"羊群行为"视角分析其对电影票房的影响。研究发现：在控制了质量等内生性影响之后，消费者羊群效应依然存在；产品特征信息对羊群效应起到了调节作用，从而形成理性跟随；采用预期差异模型可以解释消费者实现理性跟随的过程。研究结论对于电影行业宏观政策制定及对体验型产品合理进行营销推广提供了理论基础与实证依据。

The Herding Effect of Consumption Decision of Experience Products and Mechanism Explanation -An Empirical Interpretation of Consumer Behavior in Film Industry

Consumers shopping experiential products in the Internet environment rely more on online information. It is of practical significance to understand consumer's decision-making psychology under the influence of social media so as to study consumer decision making behavior of experiential products. In this paper, the film industry is taken as an example to explore the experience of the herding effect of the product and to explain its internal mechanism.Aiming at two kinds of phenomena——the movie industry's box office deviation and the consumer follow the trends, the herding effect of the experience products is explored, and its intrinsic mechanism is explained. In this paper, the film's box office data are gotten from Entgroup.com and basic information as well as review data are gotten from Douban.com, and consumer herd behavior and its impact on the film box office are analyzed. First, by examining the impact of the first week's average box office on the box office after the first week of the film, the existence of the herding effect is tested. Then the generation mechanism of herding effect, and differentiates between rational and non-rational herding are studied, and the moderating effect of film characteristics on herding effect is tested. Finally, the mechanism of rational herding and the influence of the surprises on the film box office decline are explained, which shows the process of rational herding realized by adjusting the surprise.It is found that:under the control of endogeneity such as quality, herding consumers still exist; the product quality characteristics plays a role of regulating the herding effect, forming a rational follow; the process that consumer achieve the rational process can be interpreted with surprise model. The research conclusion has practical significance for the macro policy formulation of the film industry and reasonable marketing promotion of experience products.