基于复杂网络的电动汽车充电桩众筹市场信用风险建模与分析

因其经济优势及环境友好特性，电动汽车（EV）保有量持续攀升。而当前中国充电设施建设明显滞后于电动汽车的扩张速度，成为制约电动车发展潜力的主要瓶颈。由于充电设施具有高正外部性，同时投资回收期较长，难以吸引到传统融资，而基于互联网的众筹作为新型融资方式则受到了广泛关注。但由于缺乏强制性的信息披露制度及相关法律法规，众筹融资过程中的信息不对称问题相较传统融资方式更为严重，由此导致的高违约率也进一步削弱了投资者信心。本文利用复杂网络对电动汽车充电桩众筹融资市场进行建模，刻画了众筹投资者决策过程中的羊群效应，基于信息不对称使用多Agent模型对信用风险的产生、影响及针对性政策效果进行了模拟分析。结果表明，众筹投资者在决策过程中易受到社交网络中负面信息的影响，使得筹资人违约行为的不利影响进一步扩散。而严格的罚款机制可以在不影响融资市场均衡的情况下，使违约行为的恶性循环得到遏制。

Credit Risk Modeling and Analysis for Crowdfunding Market of Electric Vehicle Charging Pile based on Complex Network

With plenty of economic and environmental advantages, there is an urgent need to promote the development of Electric Vehicles (EVs). However, the insufficiency of charging facilities has become a major bottleneck for EV uptake. For its high externality and long payback period, it is difficult to raise funds by traditional financing tools. As a novel financing mechanism, internet-based crowdfunding has attracted increasing attentions.However, lacking of targeted legislation or supervision aggravate information asymmetry in crowdfunding market, which further drives high the default risk and undermines the investors' confidence. To figure out the impacts of information asymmetry in crowdfunding market, a multi-agent simulation under social network scale is conducted, and the data of Chinese charging pile market is applied in the presented study. Both herd effect and scale effect in crowdfunding are also analyzed in sensitivity analysis.The results indicate:(1) Investors are more sensitive to the negative attitudes of surrounding people;(2)The crowdfunding project is more attractive while it exhibits strong scale effect; (3)Dividend ratio is positively related to project join ratio, while it exhibits non-monotonic influence on default ratio and initiator's profit; (4)The penalty is efficient to cut down the high default ratio according to the results of the presented model.