“政策领域-时间维度”双重视角下新能源汽车产业政策央地协同研究

本文以2009—2018年间中央及地方（以北京市等四个地区为例）颁布的263项新能源汽车产业政策为研究样本，从实施领域角度，将产业政策分为财税支持、行业规范、规划引导、监督保障、其他措施等五类，经政策分解，将政策片段与新能源汽车产业链五个环节进行匹配；在此基础上，测度不同时期产业政策央地总体协同度与政策实施领域间的协同度，并通过逐步回归法，确定影响政策协同的各政策效力指标灵敏度。研究表明："中央-北京"和"中央-深圳"的政策措施协同趋势基本一致，产业价值链各环节发展较均衡，而"中央-上海"和"中央-江苏"的政策措施协同趋势基本一致，存在"重使用、轻研发、轻市场"等失调现象；四地区与中央政策措施的协同差异主要体现在研发、生产和回收环节，提升"政策引导"和"保障措施"指标的政策效力有助于提升央地协同水平。根据政策分析，未来政策制定需从优化中央政策推广方式和加强监管保障等政策措施着手，根据产业链不同环节状况适时调整政策措施。

Research on the Policy Synergy of Central and Local Government on New Energy Vehicle Industry under the Perspective of Policy Field and Time Dimension

New energy vehicle industrial policies play an important role in promoting the early stages of industrial development. For the high-quality development of the industry, the future work should focus on policy coordination. Sorting out from the policies of the past ten years, the existing shortcomings on policy appear gradually, such as the policy intentions of policy subject bias policy objectives and imbalances of policy tool matching, etc. These problems make some industry areas lack of guidance and norms in practice. At present, most researches focus on the analysis of the coordination of each policy making subject and the qualitative analysis of policy synergy between central and local government. However, few studies focus on the quantitative analysis and optimization direction in policy tools using. Referring to the conclusions of process theorists in the research on policy coordination, "new energy vehicle industry policy coordination" is defined as the coordination of policy makers and different policy measures to achieve or support the development of the industry.The fuzzy mathematical method is used to measure the coordination degree from 2009 to 2018 to describe the synergy trend. 263 new energy vehicle industrial policies are sorted out which issued by the governments (four districts such as Beijing) from 2009 to 2018, and divided industrial policies into five categories:fiscal and tax support, industry regulation, planning guidance, supervision and other measures. Furthermore, the industry value chain is decomposed into five links:research and development, production, purchase, use and recycle. Therefore, the coupling coordination model is used to measure the coordination degree in each policy action link from 2015 to 2018.The main research shows that the policy coordination trend of "Central-Shanghai" and "Central-Jiangsu" policies is basically the same and the differences are mainly reflected in R&D, production and recycling links. Improving the policy effectiveness of "policy guidance" and "guarantee measures" will help to improve the coordination level of the central government policy through sensitivity analysis.The results can provide guiding suggestions for the government in optimizing promotion ways of central policies and enhancing regulatory safeguards policy measures. The guiding suggestions for new energy vehicles industry are beneficial to crack the uncoordinated dilemma.