现代服务业是否有助于推动城镇化？——基于产城融合视角的PVAR模型分析

目前中国的城镇化现象难以完全用"工业决定论"来解释，服务业在城镇化过程中扮演着越来越重要的角色。流通业和旅游业作为现代服务业的主导产业，具有较强的集聚功能和就业吸纳能力，还具有较强的城市经济功能和服务功能，成为城镇产业体系和公共服务体系的必要组成部分。首先对服务业与城镇化之间的互动作用机制进行理论分析；然后建立PVAR模型，通过格兰杰因果检验、脉冲响应分析和方差分解分析变量之间的因果关系；最后构建耦合协调评价模型，从全国、区域及行业层面对系统间的相互作用强度与协调发展水平进行实证分析，并归纳协调发展模式。研究发现：以流通业、旅游业为主导产业的现代服务业与城镇化之间存在因果关系和稳定均衡关系，能够推动城镇化发展；早期由工业化推动的城镇化水平高于流通业和旅游业，后期两者逐渐缩减与城镇化的差距，系统间的耦合协调发展水平不断提升，但存在区域差异；耦合协调发展模式归纳为演化趋同型和发展同步型，发展同步型组合内各系统发展水平相对一致，有助于快速提升耦合协调发展水平。

Can Modern Service Industry Promote Urbanization?——An PVAR Analysis Based on the Perspective of City-industry Integration

China is at a crucial stage of deepening urbanization. This revolutionary change which is going on in China cannot be fully explained by "industrial determinism", as service industry is playing an increasingly important role in it. As important pillar industries of the national economy as well as guide industries of modern service industry, circulation industry and tourism industry are boosting the urbanization in a steady and noticeable manner, thanks to their strengths of efficient agglomeration, high industrial contribution and capable of offering more jobs. Also, the two industries have strong urban economic function and service function, hence constituting an indispensable part of the urban industrial system and public service. In light of those facts, one of the major issues related to the study of urbanization drivers in China is supposed to involve whether circulation and tourism industries can make urbanization sustainable or not and how big their driving force can be in the years to come.Based on PVAR model and synergy theory, an empirical analysis of the coupling interaction between circulation and tourism industries and urbanization is made by picking out the panel data of the entire country from 2005 to 2016. Firstly, a theoretical analysis is conducted on the interaction mechanism between them. Secondly, a PVAR model of the three is established on the basis of theoretical analysis, for the purpose of analyzing the causal relationship of the three by means of Granger causality test, impulse response function and variance decomposition. Finally, the coupling coordination evaluation model is set up by referring to synergy theory, and an empirical evaluation of the interaction strength and the coupling coordination development level among the three is conducted on the levels of nation, region and industries, and concluded with modes of coordinated development. The research reveals that:(1) There exists a stable equilibrium relationship between circulation and tourism industries and urbanization, and the former two turn out to be the long-term driver for the latter. However, there are regional differences. (2) In the early days, the under-developed circulation and tourism industries lagged far behind the urbanization which was mainly driven by industrialization, and the gap gradually narrowed down later. The coupling coordination development level of three systems has been continuously improved. But there are regional variances, with the development level of eastern region the highest, that of the central region in the middle, and that of the western region the lowest. (3) The coupling coordination development process mode is summarized by classifying it into the evolutionary convergence and development synchronization. The development level of each system in development synchronization type is relatively consistent, which is conducive to raising the coupling coordination development level at a fast rate. The industrial perspective of the study of urbanization drivers in China is enriched, and the empirical method adopted in this paper can solve endogeneity. This paper can be of great help in facilitating the readers' understanding of the internal coupling mechanism between circulation and tourism industries and urbanization, so as to provide a basis for formulating corresponding industrial policies. As well as that, it can promote deep integration of them, boost high-quality urbanization and contribute to the industrial transformation and upgrading.