网贷行业的竞争效应与传染效应：基于问题平台大规模爆雷事件的实证研究

现阶段中国的网贷平台面临陆续退出或转型，重审网贷行业的爆雷事件对了解网络借贷等早期金融科技的发展规律以及思考金融科技未来的发展路径大有深意。本文以1700家网贷平台2015年1月4日至2016年12月25日的93，674条动态的周度交易记录为样本，对比问题平台爆雷的竞争效应与传染效应，结果发现：(1)问题平台爆雷后竞争效应处于占优地位，整体反映出民众对网贷行业较为信任；(2)本文对影响竞争效应强弱的因素依次进行检验，发现竞争程度越低、爆雷平台的规模越大、投资者信任度越高，竞争效应越强；(3)从长期来看，问题平台爆雷后现存平台在未来爆雷的风险会下降。本文为金融科技的发展提供了重要借鉴意义，民众的信任对于金融科技的健康发展十分重要；同时，国家的监管是必不可少的，国家应加大对行业的监管力度，来帮助行业实现良性循环和可持续性发展。

Competition Effect and Contagion Effect in Peer-to-peer Lending Industry：Evidence from Problem Platforms’ Explosion

China’s peer-to-peer lending platforms have been exited or transformed after frequent explosions, however reviewing the history of platforms’ explosions is significant for us to understand the development of early Fin Tech such as peer-to-peer lending platforms and to think about the future development path of Fin Tech. Taking 9,3674 dynamic weekly transaction records of 1700 platforms from January 4, 2015 to December 25, 2016 as samples, the competition effect and contagion effect of explosions are tested in this paper. The results show that:(1) The competitive effect is larger than the contagion effect, reflecting the public’s trust in thepeer-to-peer lending industry.(2) Next, the factors are tested which could affect the intensity of the competitive effect. It is found that the lower the level of competition, the stronger the competitive effect, the influence of “big” platforms’ explosions on the peer-to-peerlending industry is more intense and investors have more confidence in platforms with state-owned background. (3)In the long run, problem platforms’ explosions will reduce the probability of future exploding of the existing platforms.These conclusions provide an important reference for the development of Fin Tech. Government should win the trust of the public and strengthen the supervision of the industry, so as to realize the virtuous circle and sustainable development of Fin Tech.