利益威胁、政府工作满意度与市民对进城农民的接纳意愿——基于CSS2011数据的实证分析

本文讨论了当代中国城市本地人排斥进城农民这一问题的发生机制。通过剖析经典利益威胁假说，依托冲突理论以及中国的现实情境，本研究考察了市民与政府关系的演化及其对排斥进城农民的影响。通过对“2011年中国社会状况综合调查”数据的分析，本研究获得以下发现：（1）本地市民对进城农民的排斥部分源于其当前生活境遇的恶化，但更主要的原因是过去的利益受损经历以及对未来社会地位变化的悲观预期；（2）本地市民对政府供给公共服务的不满，会降低其对进城农民的接纳意愿；（3）在本地市民中，遭受利益损失的“失意者”对进城农民的排斥态度显著受到其对政府行政能力不满以及政府解决社会不平等问题低效的影响。本研究证实了市民对进城农民的排斥意愿中存在“替罪羊”机制。

Threatened Interests,Satisfaction towards Governments' Work and Citizens' Acceptance to Migrant Peasants in Urban China:Based on the Empirical a Analysis of CSS2011

This article tends to explore the formation mechanisms of urban native citizens' exclusive attitudes towards the migrant peasants in contemporary China. By reviewing the theory of threatened interests,which is regarded as the mainstream explanation for urban native citizens' rejection to migrants,and based on Coser's conflict theory and the process of the changing interest structure in China our research studies the evolution of the relationship between citizens and governments and its influence on citizens' exclusive attitudes towards the migrant peasants. By analyzing China Social Survey data in 2011,we find that:(1) though the citizens' exclusive attitudes partly derives from the deterioration of their current life situation,the main reasons are their interest loss in the past and pessimistic expectations to their future status;(2) The lower satisfaction toward governments' work of providing public services,the lower willingness of the local citizens to accept migrant peasants;(3) Affected by their dissatisfaction towards the government with low administrative efficiency and poor ability to narrow social inequality,urban citizens who lost their status in the past are more likely to significantly reject the peasant immigrants. The results indicate that citizens' exclusive attitudes towards the migrant peasants are mainly unrealistic. Moreover,citizens' interests loss and their satisfaction towards governments not only influence their willingness to accept peasants in cities respectively,but also have an internal relationship,thus generating the “scapegoat” mechanism that could make the peasant immigrants become an alternative target of some citizens to express their dissatisfaction towards governments. Finally,from the perspective of social integration,we discuss the necessity of accelerating the reform of interest distribution as well as narrowing the income gap in urban China.