印度产业升级的路径依赖和路径创新——一基于新制度经济学视角的探讨

产业升级是一个国家经济持续增长的必经之路，实质上也是一个制度变迁的过程。按照新制度经济学的观点，建立在自然资源禀赋、技术、制度、环境等因素基础上的路径依赖已经将印度锁定在“逆工业化”这条路径上。要想破除锁定，实现产业升级，就必须分析印度产业结构中产生路径依赖的各种因素，比如报酬递增、利益集团、初设成本、学习效应、协调效应、适应性预期、思想观念等，实现路径创新，增加经济发展的内源动力，实现国民经济可持续增长的目的。这一思路对中国的产业升级也具有启示作用。

Path Dependence and Path Creation in India＇ s Industrial Upgrading： A Discussion based on New Institutional Economics

Industrial upgrading is a critical means whereby which a state advances its level of economic growth, and might also be thought of as a process of institutional evolution. According to the views of scholars of New Institutional Economics, the particular pattern of resource extraction, technology, and institutions that India has followed have locked in a path towards ＂reverse industrialization. ＂ If India desires to break out of this path and realize industrial advancement, it must carefully consider the aspects of its industrial structure which cause this path dependence, including rising wages, interest groups, costs of entry, effectiveness of learning and coordination, adaptability of expectations, and the general theories and concepts underlying its economy. Through such analysis, India can achieve path creation, enhance internal drivers for economic growth and development, and realize the objective cise will also likely upgrading of sustainable, long term GDP growth. This conceptual exerprove useful for advancing China＇ s own respective industrial upgrading.