经济增长与环境质量:关于环境库兹涅茨曲线的经验分析

本文针对环境库兹涅茨曲线(EKC)假说进行了系统的分析.文章首先给出了一个EKC的微观解释,并应用上海市环保局1990-2001年度有关空气质量的环境指标数据,通过一个简化型模型的回归分析,论证了人均收入与环境质量之间的关系.结果发现,对于多数指标而言,环境库兹涅茨曲线假说成立,即经济增长初期会造成环境质量恶化,但到达一个转折点后,经济增长又会引致环境污染状况的改善;并且证实不同的环境质量指标对应于不同的转折点.总体上讲,经济增长最终将会改善环境质量,对环境破坏问题的解决还需依靠经济增长本身,但这一过程不会自动发生,而要通过政策响应来实现.

Economic Growth and Environmental Quality:An Empirical Analysis of the Environmentel Kuznets Curve

This paper conducts a systematic analysis of the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis. First, it offers a micro-economic explanation of EKC, and then uses data of air quality of Shanghai from 1990 to 2001 to examine the simplified form of the relationship between environmental quality and per capita income. The empirical evidence demonstrates that the hypothesis of EKC holds true for most indicators. That is, initial increases in GDP may be associated with worsening environmental conditions at low levels of income, but environmental quality appears to benefit from economic growth once some turning point has been reached. We also find that the turning points in these inverted U-shaped relationships vary for different pollutants. Generally speaking, economic growth will eventually induce an improvement in environmental quality, and the solution to environmental damage is dependent on economic growth itself. But the process is not an automatic one. To realize it needs a policy response.