要素积累对服务贸易出口增长的影响——对世界及中国、美国数据的经验分析

本文考察了要素积累对服务贸易总体和各部门出口增长的影响。文章对世界服务贸易出口与要素积累的横截面数据进行了回归分析,并对中国和美国相关数据进行时间序列分析和比较,发现不同要素的积累能够促进不同服务部门的出口增长,特别是人力资本积累对服务贸易总体及现代服务部门的出口增长有显著的正效应;研究还证实了我国传统服务部门的竞争力来自于劳动力优势。上述分析为我国服务贸易发展及其增长方式的转变提供了可资借鉴的规律和经验,即加快人力资本要素的积累对促进我国服务贸易特别是现代服务部门的出口增长、提高国际竞争力会产生积极显著的正影响。

On the Effects of Factor Accumulation on Services Export Growth

This paper investigates the influence of factor accumulation on the export growth of overall service trade and of each service sector. In a cross-sectional regression analysis of our data on world service export and factor accumulation and in a time series analysis of the data of the United States and China, we find that the accumulation of different factor can help promote growth of export of different service sectors, and in particular, human capital accumulation has a significant positive effect on the growth of export of world service trade and the modern service sectors, and that the comparative advantage of Chinese traditional service sectors comes from its abundant labor. These results give useful experience for the development of China's modern service trade, that is, rapid accumulation of human capital may have positive effects on stimulating export growth of China's service trade and improving its international competitiveness.