资本高度流动下投机冲击的"放大效应"及政策防范

随着世界金融市场的一体化,特别是国际资本的高度流动,投机冲击会导致更大的经济波动和影响.实际上在开放经济条件下投机冲击比封闭经济下的危害程度更大.本文分析了在资本高度流动的前提下,初始冲击对宏观经济变量有多倍的放大效应.重点考察了汇率的放大效应和国内资本存量的放大效应.最后,本文对投机冲击提出了防范的政策建议.

"Magnification Effect" of the Impact of Speculation due to Fast Flow of Capital and Policy Precautions

With the integration of the world financial market and especially the fast flow of internatonal capital, the impact of speculation will lead to greater economic fluctuation and negative effect. In fact, the impact of speculation is more harmful in an open economy than in a self enclosed economy. This paper makes an analysis of the multiple magnification effect of the initial impact on macro economic variables on the premise of fast capital flow. This paper focuses on the examination of the magnification effect of both the exchange rate and the internal stock of capital. Finally, this paper proposes some policies of precaution against magnification effect.