数字普惠金融对乡村振兴的动态影响研究——基于系统GMM及门槛效应的检验

当前,我国脱贫攻坚战取得全面胜利,"十四五"规划进入全面实施,数字普惠金融助力乡村振兴正面临着新的机遇与挑战。为研究数字普惠金融对乡村振兴的作用及影响,文章首先从理论方面分析数字普惠金融影响乡村振兴水平的作用机制,以此为基础开展实证研究,随后运用熵权TOPSIS法测度2011—2018年中国大陆31个省(市、自治区)的乡村振兴水平,测度结果表示我国各省份乡村振兴总体水平提升较慢,就2018年各地区乡村振兴水平而言,中部地区稍高于西部地区、东部地区显著高于西部地区,说明相较于东部和中部地区,西部地区乡村振兴水平偏低,且乡村振兴水平存在显著的地区差异。在此基础上,采用系统GMM方法定量研究数字普惠金融与地区乡村振兴水平之间的作用关系,量化分析数字普惠金融发展对乡村振兴以及乡村振兴指标不同维度的影响。为验证数字普惠金融与乡村振兴之间是否是简单的线性关系,文章运用门槛模型进一步展开实证研究。研究表明:数字普惠金融对我国乡村振兴水平有正向促进作用,这一促进作用主要通过数字普惠金融对乡风文明、产业兴旺、生活富裕和生态宜居这四个方面的显著正向影响实现;数字普惠金融与乡村振兴发展水平两者之间并非简单的线性关系,前者对后者的影响作用具备双重门槛特征,数字普惠金融指数位于第一门槛值(2.916 1)和第二门槛值(5.735 7)之间时,其对乡村振兴水平的影响作用最弱,在数字普惠金融指数跨越第二门槛值时,其对乡村振兴水平的促进作用显著增强。截至2018年,全国有8个省份数字普惠金融跨越第二门槛值,其中有6个为东部沿海省份。由此可见,我国各地区乡村振兴发展不均衡与数字普惠金融发展不均衡之间有一定的因果关系。在研究结果的基础上,文章提出以下政策建议:第一,应加大各地区普惠金融实施力度,有效提升各地区乡村振兴发展水平;第二,根据各地区数字普惠金融指数发展状况因地制宜地实施有差别的普惠金融策略,提升各地区数字普惠金融指数;第三,完善乡村治理体系,构建相应体制机制;第四,建立智能化风控体系,构建普惠金融监管机制,有效防范农村数字普惠金融风险。

Research on the dynamic impact of digital inclusive finance on rural revitalization:Test based on system GMM and threshold effect

At present, China has won an all-round victory in the battle against poverty, and the 14th five-year-plan has entered in full operation. Digital inclusive finance is facing new opportunities and challenges in catalyzing rural revitalization. In order to study the role and influence of digital inclusive finance on rural revitalization, this paper analyzes the mechanism of digital inclusive finance affecting rural revitalization from the theoretical perspective, and then conducts empirical research based on this. The entropy of TOPSIS method is used to measure the level of rural revitalization in 31 provinces (municipalities and autonomous regions) of Chinese mainland in 2011-2018. The measurement results show that the overall level of rural revitalization in China''s provinces has improved slowly. In terms of the rural revitalization level in 2018, the central region is slightly higher than the western region, and the eastern region is significantly higher than the western region, indicating that the rural revitalization level in the western region is lower than that in the eastern and central regions, and there are significant regional differences in the rural revitalization levels in China, on the basis of which, the system GMM method is used to quantitatively explore the relationship between digital inclusive finance and regional rural revitalization level, and empirically analyze the impact of the development of digital inclusive finance on overall rural revitalization and its different dimensions. Furthermore, in order to verify whether there is a simple linear relationship between digital inclusive finance and rural revitalization, the threshold model is used to carry out empirical research. The paper finds that digital inclusive finance plays a positive role in promoting the level of rural revitalization in China, this performance is mainly achieved through the positive impact of digital inclusive finance on rural civilization, industrial prosperity, living in affluence and ecological livability; There is not a simple linear relationship between digital inclusive finance and the level of rural revitalization and development. The influence of the former on the latter has the characteristics of double thresholds. When the digital inclusive finance index is between the first threshold (2.9161) and the second threshold (5.7357), its role in promoting rural revitalization is the weakest. When the digital inclusive financial index crosses the second threshold, its role in promoting the level of rural revitalization is significantly enhanced. By 2018, digital inclusive finance in 8 provinces across the country has crossed the second threshold, including 6 eastern coastal provinces. It can be seen that there is a certain causal relationship between the unbalanced development of rural revitalization in various regions of China and the unbalanced development of digital inclusive finance. Based on the research results, this paper puts forward the following policy suggestions:first, the implementation of inclusive finance in various regions should be strengthened and the level of rural revitalization and development in various regions should be effectively improved; second, according to the development of digital inclusive financial index in various regions, different inclusive financial strategies should be implemented according to local environments in order to improve the digital inclusive financial index in various regions; third, the rural governance system should be improved and the corresponding system and mechanism should be constructed; last, an intelligent risk control system should be established, and an inclusive financial supervision mechanism be enhanced, thus effectively preventing the potential risks of rural digital inclusive finance.