“一带一路”背景下中国对外承包工程的国别环境评价研究

对外承包工程是中国与"一带一路"沿线国家经济合作的主要形式之一,加强沿线国家承包工程的国别环境研究有利于降低风险和提高成功率。文章基于现有研究,新增营商环境因素,指标设计上考虑基础设施承包工程的特点,构建了包含6个环境因素、33个指标的工程承包国别环境综合评价体系,运用熵权法对"一带一路"64个国家的工程承包国别环境进行定量评价,对熵权法结果进行了Spearman检验和对国别环境综合值进行了聚类分析。研究结果表明：基础设施环境和经济环境是"一带一路"沿线工程承包重要的国别选择因素;"一带一路"沿线各国的工程承包环境差异显著,分布很不平衡,东南亚、南亚地区国家环境较好,中东欧和西亚北非区域次之,东亚、中亚和独联体地区较差;根据"一带一路"沿线国家工程承包环境评综合价值的大小,可以划分为四种类型：好、较好、较差和差。研究结论不仅为中国在"一带一路"沿线各国开展工程承包提供了国别选择的经验证据,同时为积极落实我国"走出去"战略以及"一带一路"倡议提供了重要参考。

Evaluation on country environment of Chinese foreign contracted project under The Belt and Road Initiative

External contracting projects are one of the main forms of economic cooperation between China and countries along "The Belt and Road". Strengthening the country environmental research of the contracted projects along the "The Belt and Road" is conducive to reducing risks and improving the success rate. Based on the existing research, new business environment factors and the characteristics of infrastructure contracting projects are taken into consideration. A comprehensive environmental evaluation system for project contracting countries with 6 environmental factors and 33 indicators is constructed and the entropy value method is used to quantitatively study 64 countries'' environment of contracting project. Then this paper tests the result of the application of entropy value method with Spearman and clusters comprehensive evaluation value through SPSS 19.0. The empirical evidence shows that:Firstly, the infrastructure environment and economic factors are the most important factors influencing Chinese enterprises'' decision of foreign project contracting country selection; Secondly, project contracting environment is very different and imbalance among the countries along "The Belt and Road", it is better in southeast and south Asia, secondary in Central and eastern Europe and West Asia and North Africa, worse in East Asia, Central Asia and the commonwealth of independent states; Lastly, according to the comprehensive evaluation value, the countries'' environment of contracting project is divided into four types:good, better, worse, and worst. This study has positive empirical evidence for Chinese construction enterprises to actively develop foreign contracted projects in the countries along "The Belt and Road", and also provides valued reference for the implementation of Chinese "The Belt and Road" and "go out" strategies.