转型期的产业结构变动与中国就业效应——面板数据的回归分析与协整检验

文章通过1997-2004年的面板数据对中国产业结构变动与就业进行实证分析与检验,结果显示:产业结构变动方向、产业结构变动速度对转型期的中国就业有显著影响,产业结构变动方向与就业正相关,产业结构变动速度与就业负相关;产业结构变动的就业创造效应大于就业破坏效应,产业结构变动的净结果使就业增加;转型期的就业与产业结构变动方向、产业结构变动速度之间存在长期稳定的关系.

Changes in Industry Structure and Employment Effect in China During the Transformation :Regression Analysis and Cointegration Test Based on Panel Data

This paper analyzes the effect of industry structure on employment by regression analysis and Cointegration Test based on Panel Data from 1997 to 2004,the author explores that there is significant relationship between employment during the transformation of China and changes in industry structure optimizing and industry structure changing degree.Industry structure optimizing is positively related with the employment,and the industry structure changing degree is negatively related with employment.Changes in industry structure have positive effect on employment,that is,employment creation is higher than the damages resulted from changes in industry structure.The Cointegration test on panel data suggests that there exists a long stable relationship between employment and changes in industry structure in transition period.