环境规制、空间溢出与产业升级——来自长江经济带的例证

环境规制强度究竟是促进还是抑制产业升级,现有文献的研究存在分歧。文章首先从波特假说和壁垒效应两个维度探讨了环境规制影响产业升级的内在机理,在此基础上,基于2003-2015年长江经济带108个城市面板数据,实证研究了环境规制对长江经济带产业升级的影响,结果如下：静态面板模型的实证分析表明,环境规制对长江经济带产业升级的影响显著为负,意味着环境规制强度提升并不利于长江经济带产业的转型升级;基于空间Durbin模型的实证分析表明,环境规制强度直接效应及其空间滞后项系数在各模型中均显著为负,表明本辖区及邻近区域环境规制的提升都会一定程度抑制长江经济带的产业升级,意味着忽略环境规制的溢出效应,将会导致其对产业升级影响的过高估计;经济增长、人力资本对产业升级有明显促进作用,而外商直接投资、资源禀赋和政府干预均会不同程度地抑制长江经济带的产业转型升级。

Environmental regulation, spatial spillover and industrial upgrading: Evidence from the Yangtze River Economic Zone

Whether the intensity of environmental regulation promotes or inhibits industrial upgrading, there are differences in the study of existing literature. Based on the panel data of 108 cities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt from 2003 to 2015, the paper studies the direct and indirect effects of environmental regulation on the industrial upgrading of the Yangtze River Economic Zone by using the spatial Durbin model. The results show that the coefficient of direct effect and its spatial lag of environmental regulation intensity are significantly negative in each model, which indicates that the improvement of environmental regulation within the jurisdiction or adjacent area will restrain the industrial upgrading of Yangtze River economic zone; ignoring the spillover effect of environmental regulation will lead to an overestimation of its impact on industrial upgrading. The study also finds that economic growth and human capital have a significant effect on industrial upgrading, while foreign direct investment, resource endowment and government intervention will inhibit the industrial transformation and upgrading of the Yangtze River belt in varying degrees.