绿色金融对经济高质量发展的影响效应研究

中国经济已转向高质量发展阶段,而加快形成推动经济高质量发展的绿色金融政策体系,是实现经济高质量发展的重要制度保障。文章以绿色金融为逻辑起点,贯穿于作用对象、作用方式及作用目标,形成合力影响到经济高质量发展,从而勾画出两者的理论分析框架。实证分析层面先构建绿色金融与经济高质量发展评估指标体系,其下设的二级指标分别是绿色信贷、绿色证券、绿色投资、绿色保险、碳金融与经济高效发展、经济稳定发展、经济结构优化、经济绿色发展、经济创新发展,采用主成分分析法合成绿色金融发展综合水平与经济高质量发展综合指数,再利用2008—2016年30个省份的面板数据来检验绿色金融对经济高质量发展的影响效应。研究结果表明:在综合维度上,绿色金融提升了经济高质量发展综合水平,其影响系数为0.281 4;在分维度上,绿色金融促进了经济绿色发展、经济结构优化、经济创新发展,却抑制了经济稳定发展,对经济高效发展作用不显著,且效应大小为经济绿色发展效应(0.587 0)＞经济结构优化效应(0.275 9)＞经济创新发展效应(0.112 6),这反映出绿色金融改善生态环境的效果较好,而在调整经济结构和支持绿色技术上还有待加强,绿色金融政策与产业发展的匹配度不高、影响了经济稳定性,以及绿色金融服务降低了经济发展效率。据此,推动经济高质量发展的绿色金融政策改革重点是建立绿色金融绩效评估机构来考评绿色金融活动实施效果,以稳定经济发展;制定绿色产业目录清单,以绿色产业发展带动经济结构优化;鼓励各绿色金融参与主体推动绿色技术创新,进而促进经济创新发展。研究对于厘清绿色金融与经济高质量发展的理论关系、评估影响效果及如何创新绿色金融政策以全面提升经济高质量发展水平具有重要参考。

Green finance and high-quality development: Mechanism and effects

With China running on the track of high-quality economic development, it is a vital institutional guarantee to accelerate the formation of a green financial policy system. This paper constructs a framework of the subjects, modes and goals of green finance, together with the influences on the high-quality economic development.The evaluation index system of green finance and high-quality economic development have been built, with the secondary indicators measuring green credit, green securities, green investment, green insurance, carbon finance and efficient economic development, stable economic development, optimization of economic structure, green economic development and economic innovation development, etc.By using the principal component analysis method to synthesize the comprehensive level of green finance development and the comprehensive index of high-quality economic development, the paper further makes an empirical test of the effects of green finance on the high-quality economic development with the panel data of 30 provinces from 2008 to 2016. The result shows that, comprehensively, green finance improves the overall comprehensive level of high-quality economic development, with the influence coefficient of 0.2814; specifically, green finance enhances green economy, optimizes economic structure, promotes innovation whereas escalates economy fluctuations and plays an insignificant role in the efficient economic development, with the economic green development effect (0.5870), economic structure optimization effect (0.2759) and economic innovation development effect (0.1126) respectively. This reflects that green finance has a good effect on improving the ecological environment, but needs to be strengthened in adjusting the economic structure and supporting green technology. The green finance policy is still yet to cope with industrial development, otherwise it might affect the economic stability, reducing the efficiency of economic development.Therefore, relevant innovations on green financial policies are suggested to promote high-quality economic development in the future. That is, the reform of green financial policy shouldfocuse on the establishment of green financial performance evaluation institutions in order to evaluate the implementation effect of green financial activities; Formulate the catalogue and list of green industries to promote the optimization of economic structure with the development of green industries; Encourage all green financial participants to promote green technology innovation, so as to promote economic innovation and development. The study has an important reference for clarifying the theoretical relationship between green finance and high-quality economic development, evaluating the impact effect and how to innovate green finance policies to comprehensively improve the level of high-quality economic development.