成渝地区双城经济圈撤县设区的经济效应研究

科学合理的城市行政区划调整是提高国家治理能力和促进地方发展的有效途径，而"撤县（市）设区"政策是近年来行政区划调整的重要方式。成渝地区双城经济圈定位于具有全国影响力的重要经济中心，"撤县（市）设区"政策是否能成为区域经济发展的强大推力，需要从理论与实证两方面进行系统研究。文章基于2010—2019年共101个县域样本面板数据，采用定性与定量相结合的研究方法，通过双重差分模型探究政策实施对成渝地区双城经济圈经济发展的影响效应，从政策实施的具体区县与成渝地区双城经济圈整体两个层次进行效果检验，以综合研判"撤县（市）设区"政策对经济发展、区划调整、产业结构优化等方面的作用效果。研究结果表明："撤县（市）设区"政策的实施对成渝地区双城经济圈县域经济体发展具有显著促进作用，能够加快经济发展进程；"撤县（市）设区"政策的实施效果在成渝地区双城经济圈内具有明显地区差异，重庆市的实施效果优于四川省；政策实施的促进作用为短期激励，且需经历一定适应期方能充分调配市政资源驱动县域经济发展，激励作用会随时间逐渐减弱。进一步的机制分析显示，产业聚集效应在政策实施地区的经济发展中具有显著促进作用。"撤县（市）设区"政策的实施可通过扩大城市规模、促进区域内大量企业聚集而带来的产业聚集效应来促进成渝地区双城经济圈经济发展。产业聚集效应能够降低运输成本、促进信息交流与提升分工合作效率，加快推动经济高质量发展。优化调整成渝地区双城经济圈行政区划，应考虑各地区发展条件，因地制宜地实施区划调整政策；协调中心城区与外围县域经济发展关系，根据区域未来发展规划，及时调整城区功能定位与县域发展格局；提升政策实施经济效率，科学合理挖掘资源潜力，优化区划调整内涵。文章从理论假说出发，经过系列实证分析检验，对典型内陆经济增长极县域经济区划调整的经济效应进行深入探讨，有利于拓展区划调整影响效应研究，可为地方政府行政区划优化提供一定参考。

Research on the economic effect of withdrawing counties into districts in Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Circle

Scientific and reasonable adjustment of urban administrative division is an effective way to improve national governance capacity and promote local development, and the policy of "withdrawing counties into districts" is an important way of administrative division adjustment in recent years. Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Circle(abbr. CCEC) is positioned as an important economic center with national influence, so it needs to be systematically studied from both theoretical and empirical aspects whether the policy of "withdrawing counties into districts" can become a strong thrust for regional economic development. Based on the panel data of 101 sample counties from 2010 to 2019, using a combination of qualitative and quantitative research methods, this paper explores the impact of policy implementation on the economic development of CCEC through the double difference model from the perspective of the specific counties and the overall economic circle. So that we can comprehensively study and judge the impact of the policy of "withdrawing counties into districts" on economic development, zoning adjustment and industrial structure optimization. The results show that the implementation of the policy of "withdrawing counties into districts" has a significant role in promoting the development of county economies in CCEC, which can accelerate the process of economic development. The implementation effect of the policy of "withdrawing counties into districts" has obvious regional differences, among which the implementation effect of Chongqing is better than that of Sichuan. The promotion effect of policy implementation is short-term, and it needs to go through a certain adaptation period to fully allocate municipal resources to drive the development of county economy. The incentive effect will gradually weaken over time. Further mechanism analysis shows that industrial agglomeration effect plays a significant role in promoting the economic development of policy implementation areas. The implementation of the policy of "withdrawing counties into districts" can promote the economic development of CCEC by the industrial agglomeration effect brought by the expansion the city scale and the agglomeration of a large number of enterprises in the region. Industrial agglomeration effect can reduce transportation costs, improve information exchange and improve the efficiency of division of labor and cooperation, and accelerate the high-quality economic development of CCEC. To optimize and adjust the administrative division of CCEC, we should consider the development conditions of each region and implement the division adjustment policy according to local conditions; coordinate the economic development relationship between the central urban area and the surrounding counties, and timely adjust the functional orientation of the urban area and the development pattern of the county according to the future development plan of the region; improve the economic efficiency of policy implementation, scientifically and reasonably tap the potential of resources, and optimize the connotation of zoning adjustment. Starting from the theoretical hypothesis and through a series of empirical analysis and test, this paper makes an in-depth discussion on the economic effect of the county economic zoning adjustment of the typical inland economic growth pole, which is conducive to expand the research on the impact effect of zoning adjustment, and can provide a certain reference for the optimization of local government administrative zoning.