中央银行公信力与货币政策目标的相关关系及政策启示

公信力是中央银行最为重要的一种能力,对中央银行引导公众预期、提升对外履职效力意义重大.文章首先根据央行公信力的影响因素设计了央行公信力评价指标体系,并运用主成分分析法构建了央行公信力指数,然后运用动态面板数据Sys-GMM模型实证研究了2002-2014年14个发达及发展中国家和地区央行公信力与货币政策最终目标的相关关系.研究表明:央行公信力与通货膨胀率有显著的负相关关系,即公信力越强,越有利于央行控制通胀;央行公信力与金融稳定水平有显著的正相关关系,即提高央行公信力水平有助于央行实现维护金融稳定的政策目标.因此,中央银行应着力提升公信力,以提高央行货币政策操作工具的调控效力,实现稳定物价、保持金融稳定的货币政策目标.

The relationship between central bank credibility and monetary policy objectives and policy implications

Credibility is the most important ability of central bank,which has a great significance for central bank to guide the public expectations and to promote the effectiveness of performing their duties.This paper designs an evaluation index system of central bank''s credibility according to the influencing factors firstly,and makes use of principal component analysis to build the central bank''s credibility index.Then,this article uses Sys-GMM dynamic panel data model to make empirical studies on the relationship between credibility and the ultimate goals of monetary policy for 14 developed and developing countries and regions'' central banks.Research shows that the central bank credibility has significant negative correlation relationship with the inflation rate,which means that the more credibility,the more conducive for the central bank to control inflation; central bank credibility has significant positive correlation relationship with the financial stability,which means that improving the central bank''s credibility will help the central bank achieve the policy objectives of maintaining financial stability.Therefore,central bank should focus on improving the credibility to improve the effectiveness of monetary policy tools,and to achieve the policy objectives of stabilizing prices and maintaining financial stability.