中国人口回旋空间在构建新发展格局中的优势和作用

面对世界百年未有之大变局、全球新冠肺炎疫情的冲击和国际发展环境不确定性增大,党中央提出了要加快构建以国内大循环为主体、国内国际双循环相互促进的新发展格局。构建和形成新发展格局中需要更加综合的视角考虑中国人口规模、年龄结构、人力资本及人口空间分布等因素在经济高质量发展中的作用和独特优势。中国拥有的巨大人口规模所形成的巨大市场效应,有利于促进和带来社会分工精细化从而促进经济增长;巨大的人口规模可以为经济社会发展提供稳定而充足的有效劳动供给、人力资本和人才储备;巨大的人口规模也为技术创新和进步提供人力资本支撑以及市场需求条件;同时可以充分利用中国广袤的空间回旋优势、利用区域间发展差异特征,实现产业优化升级和梯次转移,保持产业体系的完整和协调发展,优化人力资源与自然资源禀赋的配置。因此,即便在人口老龄化和人口负增长背景下,只要充分发挥人口规模巨大在总供给和总需求、内需和外需、投资和消费、出口和进口等环节的联通枢纽作用,必能畅通国内大循环和国内国际双循环相互促进,从而保障经济实现高质量发展。

The Advantages and Functions of Chinas Population Swing Space in Building a New Development Pattern

Facing the changes unseen in a century and the challenges of the COVID-19 in the world,there can be seen that the uncertainty of the international development environment is increasing,the political bureau of the Communist Party of China(CPC)has proposed that it is necessary to accelerate the establishment of a “dual circulation” development pattern in which great domestic economic cycle plays a leading role while international economic cycle remains its extension and supplement.In order to create and form a new development pattern,it should take the population size,age structure,human capital and population spatial distribution into consideration and explore their unique advantages in high-quality economic development from the comprehensive perspective.The paper found that:The huge market utility formed by Chinas huge population could promote and bring the refinement of social division of labor to foster the economic growth;Huge population size can provide stable and sufficient effective labor supply,human capital and talent reserve for economic and social development,and it can also provide the human capital support and the market demand conditions for the technological innovation and progress;By making full use of Chinas advantages of the swing space and the characteristics of the regional development differences,it could achieve the industrial upgrading and echelon transfer,maintain the integrity and coordinated development of the industrial system and optimize the allocation of human resources and natural resources.Therefore,even in the situation of the population aging and the negative population growth,as long as giving full play to the advantages of the huge population in the total supply and demand,the domestic and foreign demand,the investment and consumption,the export and import,there will be able to promote the domestic circulation and create a new development pattern where domestic and foreign markets can boost each other,so as to ensure the high-quality economic development.