现代农业与农业信贷相关性的实证分析

随着现代农业的进一步发展，农业信贷与现代农业的相关性日渐凸显。基于1978-2012年的相关数据，运用回归方法对农业信贷对现代农业发展的总体指标与分项指标的影响进行了分析。结果表明：农业信贷是现代农业发展的因，对现代农业发展有显著影响，农业信贷量每增长1个百分点，现代农业的发展可增长0.067个百分点，财政支农水平可提高0.2个百分点；但由于现代农业的发展受到多种因素的影响，其发展速度明显低于农业信贷量。因此，必须充分重视农业信贷对现代农业发展的影响作用，强化政府为主导的全方位农业产业信贷服务，使农地融资、财政撬动信贷资金、价值链融资等多种模式尽快进入现代农业。

Empirical Analysis on Correlation of Modern Agriculture and Agricultural Credit

With the further development of modern agriculture, the correlation between modern agriculture and agricultural credit become obvious. Based on the related data of 1978-2012, the correlation between modern agriculture and agricultural credit is analyzed using the regression method. The results show that agricultural credit has significant influence on the development of modern agriculture: with every 1% growth of agricultural credit amount, the development of modern agriculture increase by 0.067%, and the level of agricultural financial subsidies increase by 0.2%.However, as modern agriculture is affected by many factors, its development speed is significantly lower than that of agricultural credit. To promote the influence on modern agricultural, it is suggested that we must realize the significance of the correlation between modern agriculture and agricultural credit, strengthen all-around agricultural credit service led by the government, speed up all kinds of model into the agriculture, such as rural land financing, financial leverage credit, value chain finance, etc..