农户防范返贫:应该更关注人力资本还是社会资本?

基于部分中国家庭追踪调查微观数据,利用多维返贫测算方法识别返贫农户,实证检验了人力资本和社会资本在农户防范返贫中的效应和机制。研究发现:(1)人力资本和社会资本均是防范农户多维返贫的重要因素,但从返贫效应的视角看,人力资本防范返贫的影响更大,是巩固拓展农村脱贫攻坚成果的关键资本。(2)机制分析中,人力资本能发挥迁移效应,通过劳动力流动的部分中介作用防范农户返贫,而社会资本能发挥信息获取和抵押品效应,通过创业的部分中介作用防范农户返贫。(3)人力资本降低了农户在收入、医疗、生活维度的返贫发生概率,社会资本则降低了收入、医疗维度的返贫发生概率。(4)两类资本的防范返贫效应存在区域差异,人力资本显著降低东部和西部农户返贫发生概率,而社会资本显著降低了东部和中部农户返贫发生概率。

Preventing Poverty Return Among Farming Households:Should Human Capital or Social Capital Be More Concerned?

Based on the partial micro data of Chinese Household Tracking Survey (CFPS),this study empirically tested the effects and mechanisms of human capital and social capital in preventing poverty returning among farming households based on the multidimensional poverty returning measurement.It is found that:(1) Both human capital and social capital are important factors to prevent farmers from multidimensional return to poverty.But from the perspective of returning to poverty effect,human capital has a greater impact on preventing poverty returning,which is the key capital to consolidate and expand the achievements of rural poverty alleviation;(2) In the mechanism analysis,human capital can exert the migration effect and prevent farmers from returning to poverty through the partly mediating the role of labor mobility.While social capital plays the information acquisition and collateral effect and prevents farmers from returning to poverty through the partial mediation role of entrepreneurship;(3) Human capital reduces the probability of farmers returning to poverty in dimensions of income,medical care and life,while social capital reduces the probability of poverty return in the income and medical dimensions;(4) There are regional differences in the poverty return prevention effects of the two types of capital.Human capital significantly reduces the probability of poverty return for farm households in the west and east,while social capital significantly reduces the probability of poverty return for farm households in the east and central areas.