基于Logistic模型产业集群演化稳定性研究

依据产业集群的内在关系,产业集群有非正式集群、有组织的集群、创新型集群三个层次或形态,针对不同演化形态我们分别建立了Logistic模型,并对稳定平衡态下企业共生经济效益进行了分析和对比,研究了它们共生的条件和原因。另外产业集群演化除了能够产生稳定平衡的、周期的动态行为外,还可能产生混沌的现象,单一的线性因果关系不能解释其演化规律;同时产业集群演化所具备的初值依赖性也促使演化混沌的可能产生;在集群演化混沌状态下,集群的演化发展方向、模式由集群内部企业间共生性和合作稳定性以及外部环境的影响共同决定。就我国产业集群的发展而言,要有条件有选择地引导产业集群的形成和发展,培育和加强集群内部的共生机制,应本着区域产业集群与区域经济协同发展的原则,选择适应性的产业集群发展战略。

An Analysis of Stability About Industrial Cluster Evolution Based on Logistic Model

The symbiosis conditions and cooperation stability is analyzed through constructing logistic model according to different forms in the industrial cluster evolution process.Chaos may emerge during the process of industrial cluster evolution besides the dynamic action of stabilitym,balance and periodicity.It is very obvious that linear mode can not explain industrial cluster evolution clearly.However,the dependence of initial condition of industrial cluster evolution may bring about chaos.In the chaos station,the direction and mode of industrial cluster evolution will be determined by the symbiosis and cooperation stability between enterprises in the industrial cluster and the outside environment.Then,importance should be attached to the development of industrial cluster in China,such as constructing industrial cluster,cultivating the symbiosis mechanism and choosing adapted stratagem according to the principle of co-development of industrial cluster and regional economy.