农业信贷规模与农村经济增长关系的实证分析

基于协整分析,利用误差修正模型及Granger因果检验,证明了我国农业贷款与农村经济增长之间存在长期均衡关系,农业信贷是推动农业发展的重要措施,且农业贷款对农业经济的长期弹性为0.69;短期内农业信贷变动与农村经济变动呈负相关关系。此外,农业信贷对经济的推动作用有滞后效应,短期内(1个季度)信贷推动作用不明显,而滞后1期后农业贷款的推动作用凸现。因此,应当提高农业信贷资金使用效率,并关注农业信贷滞后效应。

Empirical Analysis of Relationship Between Agricultural Credit and Rural Economic Growth

This paper analyzes the relation between agricultural credit and agricultural GDP by employing the co-integration analysis,Granger causality test and error correction model.The results indicate that agricultural credit and agricultural GDP are in co-integration correlation,and that they have long-term stable relations.Agricultural credit is an important measure to promote agricultural development,and the long-term elasticity of agricultural credit to agricultural economy is about 0.69.However,changes in both show negative correlation in the short term.In addition,there is a lag effect while agricultural credit is boosting agricultural economy,and the promotion is highlighted after a lag.Therefore,we must pay more attention to the efficiency of agricultural credit and lag effects of its driving force.