项目投资的期权分析方法

企业项目投资的传统分析方法在不确定条件下具有一定的实用价值 ,但是这些方法忽略了项目投资的机会价值 ,主要体现在管理柔性和战略适应性两个方面。按照 Myers教授提出的“增长期权 growth option”的概念 ,扩展的 NPV由两部分组成 ,即静态 NPV和期权溢酬。期权定价理论以及金融期权定价模型的成功实践 ,为项目投资机会的期权价值估价提供了理论和模型分析基础。但是 ,由于这种基于实体资产的实物期权本身的不可交易性和基础资产不可交易性的存在 ,其定价问题的处理难度很大。只有逐步完善市场条件 ,适时引入博弈理论等工具 ,企业项目投资的实物期权分析方法才会更加准确、科学和实用

Options Analysising Approach on Project Investment

Traditional analysising approaches of corporate project investment are practical under certain conditions. However under uncertain circumstances, these approaches do not appropriately capture the whole value of project investment for neglecting managerial flexibility and strategic adaptability. According to "growth option" presented by Professor Myers, extended NPV is composed of static NPV and option premium. Option pricing theory and its successful application in financial area supply theoretical and model analysis to option value of investment opportunities. But the evaluation is very difficult for the nontradability of real option basing on real assets. So real option analysis approach will become more accurate and scientific and practical by improving market conditions and using game theoretical tools appropriately.