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我国卷烟消费结构及主要经济影响因素分析——以福建漳州市为例
引用本文:李卫,陈华文,周冀衡,赵百东,张一扬,杨虹琦,郑素平,柳均.我国卷烟消费结构及主要经济影响因素分析——以福建漳州市为例[J].福建农林大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2009,12(4):46-49.
作者姓名:李卫  陈华文  周冀衡  赵百东  张一扬  杨虹琦  郑素平  柳均
作者单位:1. 湖南农业大学烟草科学与健康重点实验室,湖南长沙,410128
2. 湖南农业大学烟草科学与健康重点实验室,湖南长沙410128;福建省漳州市烟草专卖局,福建漳州363400
3. 湖南农业大学烟草科学与健康重点实验室,湖南长沙410128;国家烟草专卖局,北京100045
4. 国家烟草专卖局,北京,100045
基金项目:国家发展与改革委员会资助项目 
摘    要:利用偏最小二乘回归法(PLS)对漳州卷烟消费数据和影响卷烟消费的主要经济因素进行了分析。结果表明:目前漳州卷烟消费中,一、二类卷烟增长较快,三、四类卷烟是主要的卷烟消费类型,五类卷烟逐步减少。预测模型对自变量的累计信息利用率达到了99.2%,同时能够解释因变量99.6%的变异信息,累计交叉统计有效性达到0.99,预测值与观测值组成的数据点都在回归图的对角线附近分布,且回归系数达到0.9966,该模型的拟合效果较好。居民消费价格基定指数对卷烟消费增长影响最大,随着GDP增长和各产业快速发展,以及人民生活水平的提高,卷烟消费需求将会增加,适当的提高卷烟零售价格可以减少卷烟消费量。

关 键 词:偏最小二乘回归  卷烟消费  漳州

Study on the situation of cigarettes consumption and its main affecting economic indexes in China——A case study on Zhangzhou in Fujian
LI Wei,CHEN Hua-wen,ZHOU Ji-heng,ZHAO Bai-dong,ZHANG Yi-yang,YANG Hong-qi,ZHENG Su-ping,LIU Jun.Study on the situation of cigarettes consumption and its main affecting economic indexes in China——A case study on Zhangzhou in Fujian[J].Journal of Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University,2009,12(4):46-49.
Authors:LI Wei  CHEN Hua-wen  ZHOU Ji-heng  ZHAO Bai-dong  ZHANG Yi-yang  YANG Hong-qi  ZHENG Su-ping  LIU Jun
Institution:LI Wei1,CHEN Hua-wen1,3,ZHOU Ji-heng1,ZHAO Bai-dong1,2,ZHANG Yi-yang1,YANG Hong-qi1,ZHENG Su-ping2,LIU Jun1(1.Key Laboratory of Tobacco Science and Health,Changsha,Hunan 410128,China,2.State Tobacco Monopoly Administration,Beijing 100045,3.Fujian Zhangzhou Tobacco Monopoly Administration,Zhangzhou,Fujian 363400,China)
Abstract:Quantity analyses of cigarettes consumption data and factors affecting the demand of cigarettes in Zhangzhou were carried out by Partial Least-Squares(PLS) regression.According to the analysis,the type cigarettes of first and second are the growth pole of cigarettes consumption in Zhangzhou,the third and fourth are becoming the capital cigarette consumption type and the fifth is exiting the market progressively.The cumulative fraction of the sum of squares(SS) of all the Y and Z variables explained by all e...
Keywords:Partial Least Squares Regression  cigarette consumption  impact factor  Zhangzhou  
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